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Bidding on a used machine

CalculusHard

A seller privately knows the value of a used machine, which is uniform on . You make a single take-it-or-leave-it bid with , and the seller accepts exactly when . Because you run the machine better, it is worth to you. If the seller accepts, your profit is ; otherwise it is . What is your largest possible expected profit? Give the answer as a fraction in lowest terms.

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A whole number, a decimal, a fraction like 3/8 or a percent.

Hint

Your profit only counts when the seller accepts, so integrate over the values at which the seller agrees.

Solution
  1. The expected profit is the integral of from to , since has density .
  2. That integral is .
  3. Its derivative is zero at , and the graph is a downward parabola, so this is the best bid.
  4. The best expected profit is .

Answer: