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First flip given many heads

StatisticsHard

A fair coin is flipped times, with independent flips. Given that at least flips are heads, what is the probability that the first flip is heads?

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A whole number, a decimal, a fraction like 3/8 or a percent.

Hint

Condition on the exact head count and note that, given the count, each position is equally likely to be a head.

Solution
  1. The sequences with , and heads number , and , a total of .
  2. Given heads among flips, the first flip is heads in a fraction of the sequences.
  3. The sequences with first flip heads number , and , a total of .
  4. The conditional probability is , which reduces to .

Answer: